Red, white and blue, but built for gold

There are a lot of reasons why the USA Basketball Team should storm through the field at the 2007 FIBA Americas Championship in Las Vegas beginning Wednesday. They are almost too numerous to mention, although we will point out some of the major ones in due time.
But having a more talented roster top to bottom or giving a superior performance in the most games over 12 days isn't what winning at the highest levels of international basketball is all about. The USA Basketball outfits that lost in the semifinals of the last two major international competitions — the 2004 Olympics in Greece and the 2006 FIBA World Championship in Japan — learned that painful lesson and each limped away miserably clutching bronze medals.
Neither the 2004 or 2006 teams even earned a chance to play for the gold medal. In fact, the United States hasn't competed in a gold medal contest in the Olympics or World Championship since 2000 — when it defeated France in Sydney, Australia to take home the last prime coinage for the once-unbeatable Red, White & Blue.
In this Olympic qualifying competition, the United States could win eight straight games by an average of 30 points over the first two rounds and it wouldn't matter much. What matters is winning on Sept. 1.
That is the date of the two semifinals, and the winners on that Saturday night will be special, indeed. That's because the two finalists in this tournament both qualify for the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, China. (In a strange way, the gold medal game on Sunday, Sept. 2, will be anticlimactic, almost an exhibition game.)
This current amalgamation of NBA stars is the best team constructed by USA Basketball since the little-remembered 2003 FIBA Americas team that punished opponents (including nemesis Argentina twice) on its way to a 10-0 record. That group included Tim Duncan, Jason Kidd, Allen Iverson, Vince Carter and a healthy Jermaine O'Neal. It also boasted outstanding 3-point shooting from Ray Allen and Mike Bibby.
Unfortunately, Kidd, Carter, O'Neal, Allen and Bibby did not suit up for USA Basketball in 2004 or 2006, and the point guard play and perimeter shooting has not been nearly as good since. In 2004, Iverson and Stephon Marbury clanged enough 3-point attempts to allow not only mighty Argentina but middle of the road teams like Lithuania and Puerto Rico to humble the USA squad. In 2006, big Greek guards Theodoros Papaloukas and Dimitris Diamantidis punished the smaller Chris Paul and Kirk Hinrich in the semifinals, exploiting the NBA guards' inexperience and lack of physical strength on every inch of the court.

Now, the field for the FIBA Americas Championship doesn't boast Spain, Greece, France or any of the other current European powers. Argentina, beaten by the U.S. one year ago in a consolation bronze medal game that offered little in the way of consolation for either the winners or losers, will be without national team stalwarts Manu Ginobili, Fabricio Oberto and Walter Hermann, all of whom are playing in the NBA. But the team still boasts Carlos Delfino (Toronto Raptors), Luis Scola (Houston Rockets) and Pablo Prigioni (Tau Ceramica of Spain), all experienced players who have played key roles in many international victories. It's still not clear whether Andres Nocioni, the Chicago Bulls star who was hobbled most of last season by plantar fasciitis, will be on the final roster.
Puerto Rico, with NBA guards Carlos Arroyo (Orlando Magic) and Jose Juan Barea (Dallas Mavericks); and Brazil, with Nene (Denver Nuggets), Leandro Barbosa (Phoenix Suns), and Tiago Splitter (San Antonio Spurs draft pick), are the other favorites in the tournament, but none will be favored to beat the United States when it counts most.
Here are the five main reasons why the USA Basketball team should go undefeated in Las Vegas and capture a berth in the 2008 Olympic Games:
1) Kobe Bryant.
LeBron James is getting better all the time, and Carmelo Anthony, the scoring leader of the 2006 bronze-medal winning World Championship team, is a truly outstanding offensive player. But neither player has taken, much less made, as many big shots as Bryant has in his 11-year NBA career. Despite experiencing seven losses in the last three major international competitions (19-7 overall, .731), the United States rarely gets soundly defeated in international play. Often, one or two more perimeter shots or simply better free throw shooting would have made the difference. Bryant is the ultimate big shot maker, and that includes making all the big free throws down the stretch when it counts.
2) Jason Kidd.
It's no accident USA Basketball has an 18-0 record in the last two competitions (2000 Olympics, 2003 FIBA Americas) in which Kidd has played. Kidd is big and strong enough to trade hip checks with the biggest international guards, is a tenacious defensive player and his acumen at setting up teammates for baskets is unmatched in basketball today outside of Steve Nash (who isn't playing for Canada, by the way). Kidd is most dangerous when he doesn't even have to think about scoring a basket, and the composition of this team makes that a reality. Whereas Chris Paul and Kirk Hinrich were novices trying to feel out international play, Kidd is a proven international floor general who won't be thrown off by the rhythm of a 40-minute game or the inconsistent international officiating. At crunch time, Kidd will ensure the right players have the ball in their hands.
3) Better 3-Point Shooting.
International teams are replete with smallish guards who don't have the athletic package to compete in the NBA, but are masters at locating and nailing shots from the shorter international 3-point line (20 feet, six inches). Joe Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks is a marvelous physical specimen at 6-foot-8 and 230 pounds, but he made only 12 of 39 attempts in Japan (30.8 percent), failing at his primary function and putting the United States at a tremendous disadvantage. Overall, the United States shot only 36.9 percent from 3-point range in Japan. USA Basketball hopes it has rectified that shortcoming by naming 3-point specialists Michael Redd of the Milwaukee Bucks and Mike Miller of the Memphis Grizzlies to the 2007 team. If Redd and Miller can be counted on to make 3-pointers when defenders clog the lane or swarm Bryant, Anthony and James, the USA team could start administering profound beatings to its brethren in the Americas.
4) Better Free Throw Shooting.
A disgrace. A shame. An embarrassment. Only the censorship capabilities of my editors prevent me from using stronger language to describe the performance of the last two USA Basketball teams at the free throw line. In 2006, the United States shot 66.7 percent from the line. In 2004, the tally was 66.8 percent, and Shaq wasn't even on either team. In 2006, it was a communal disgrace: of the top six USA players in free throw attempted, Dwyane Wade was the best at 70 percent. Anthony (63 percent), Dwight Howard (61.9 percent) and LeBron James (55 percent) were all terrible, although for Howard, that measured up to his career average. Why will things be different this time? For starters, it will be an upset if Bryant, a career 84 percent free throw shooter, doesn't lead the team in attempts. Chauncey Billups (88 percent), Redd (85 percent) and Kidd (78 percent) are all fine free throw shooters. And while James is no guarantee to shoot any better after the way he looked at the line in the playoffs, you have to believe that Anthony will do better than 63 percent this time around. He's a career 80 percent shooter.
5) Better Defense.
You would think NBA players would be able to defend the pick and roll reasonably well, but that just wasn't the case in Japan. The burly international forwards are masters at setting moving screens that seem to elude the notice of FIBA referees, and too often, NBA stars were relegated to whining at the refs instead of coming up with a solution. USA Basketball head coach Mike Krzyzewski will doubtless do a better job of preparing his team to combat the international offensive staple, but he also has a savvier group of players this time around. Bryant, Kidd and Billups all possess enormous physical strength and won't be picked off as easily as Chris Paul, Kirk Hinrich and Dwyane Wade were. And with another year of experience under his belt, Howard won't have that "deer in the headlights" hesitation he showed so often in Japan, when he blocked only 12 shots in nine games.
Parting Thought
If the unthinkable happens and the United States does not finish in the top two in the FIBA Americas Championship, it will be no less than a calamity for USA Basketball, which has invested more time and energy in dogged pursuit of an Olympic berth than ever before. Still, even if that should come to pass, that unhappy result would not necessarily preclude the United States from participating in the 2008 Olympics.
The third, fourth and fifth place finishers in Las Vegas will qualify for the 2008 FIBA World Olympic Qualifying Tournament, a 12-team, last-chance tournament that will be played July 7-13, 2008. The top three finishers in that tournament will earn the last three available spots for the August, 2008 Olympics. Of course, USA Basketball would rather not have to compete in yet another qualifier, but then again, winning basketball competitions is no longer a sure thing for the nation formerly known as the Dominant Basketball Power on Earth.

By Chris Ekstrand

MSNBC